Model-in-the-Loop Engineering · Capstone brief

ENG-02 · Predictive maintenance that earns its keep

On a public equipment-degradation dataset the teacher approves, can you beat a dumb time-based maintenance rule — and show whether the model’s false alarms cost more than the failures it prevents?

The question

On a public equipment-degradation dataset the teacher approves, can you beat a dumb time-based maintenance rule — and show whether the model’s false alarms cost more than the failures it prevents?

System / materials

Suitable public sets (confirm before assign): NASA C-MAPSS turbofan subsets, IMS bearing runs, or a teacher-exported CNC / pump log with no student PII. Fixed prediction horizon and cost table supplied by the teacher.

Expected failure modes

Optimizing accuracy instead of cost. Training on test units. Claiming “zero downtime” from a toy dataset.

Done looks like

Cost comparison table: time-based vs. model-triggered maintenance, with explicit false-alarm and missed-failure counts and a written recommendation.

Five C's

CT: the metric is dollars or downtime, not AUC alone. CR: defining a trigger threshold with a reason. CO: peer checks the cost arithmetic. CM: one-page memo to a maintenance lead. CZ: who pays for unnecessary stops.

Mentor role

Reliability or manufacturing engineer reviews metric plan at Checkpoint 1 and cost memo at Checkpoint 2. School-supervised.

Rubric calibration

R1: named horizon and cost assumptions. R2: splits documented. R3: time-based baseline present. R4: false-alarm cost shown. R5: memo actionable. R6: no production deployment claim.

Two ways this goes wrong

(a) Beautiful AUC, no dollar story. (b) Leakage from future labels into features.

Credit lane fit

Lane A; Lane B with Internship wrapper only if division supplies a real host. No verified credit claim.