Applied ML Systems · Capstone brief
DS-11 · The hot side of the street
Within Richmond, how much of surface temperature variation is explained by canopy — and does the pattern line up with historical redlining boundaries?
The question
Urban heat islands track tree canopy and impervious surface. Within Richmond, how much of surface temperature variation is explained by canopy — and does the pattern line up with historical redlining boundaries?
Data
NASA POWER or Landsat-derived surface temperature (https://power.larc.nasa.gov/). Richmond open data tree canopy and land cover (https://data.richmondgov.com/). Mapping Inequality HOLC redlining polygons (https://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/redlining/). Census ACS for current demographics (https://www.census.gov/data/developers/data-sets/acs-5year.html).
Expected failure modes
Satellite surface temperature is not air temperature and the two are routinely confused. Resolution mismatch between temperature rasters and canopy polygons requires an explicit aggregation choice. HOLC boundaries are from the 1930s and present-day demographics have shifted — the historical claim and the current claim are different claims.
Done looks like
A model of surface temperature from canopy and impervious cover, with residuals mapped, and a separate, carefully worded comparison against HOLC grades that does not overstate causality across ninety years.
Five C's
CT: separating a historical association from a present-day mechanism. CR: resolving raster-to-polygon aggregation. CO: peer check on the spatial join. CM: a map essay. CZ: this is the most direct environmental-justice question in the bank and demands precision, not indignation.
Mentor role
A GIS analyst, urban forester, climate scientist, or environmental-justice researcher reviews the spatial method at Checkpoint 1 and the historical framing at Checkpoint 2. School-supervised.
Rubric calibration
R1: surface vs. air temperature distinguished in the question. R2: aggregation choice stated and defended. R3: canopy-only baseline. R4: residuals mapped, not just summarized. R5: the map essay stands alone. R6: the ninety-year causal gap is named rather than implied.
Two ways this goes wrong
(a) The student writes "redlining causes heat" from a correlation across historical districts, with no mechanism and no controls. (b) Surface temperature is reported as what a person feels, overstating the effect by several degrees.
Source moved or something unclear? Send feedback on this brief. Mentors are advisory; the school supervises. These briefs do not produce verified computer-science credit.