Environment, Energy & Compute · Capstone brief

ENV-02 · Climate model literacy

Compare two public climate products on one local question; separate scenario uncertainty from measurement error.

The question

Compare two public climate products on one local question; separate scenario uncertainty from measurement error.

Sources / materials

Two public climate products (projections, reanalyses, or downscaled datasets) the teacher can access. One local question (e.g. heat days, precip). Comparison table template that separates scenario choice from observational error.

Expected failure modes

Treating one model run as destiny. Mixing RCP/SSP scenarios without labels. Declaring local weather “proves” a projection wrong.

Done looks like

Comparison table; local-question memo; labeled uncertainties; recommendation for how a planner should cite the products.

Five C's

CT: scenario vs measurement. CR: same question both products. CO: peer checks scenario labels. CM: planner memo. CZ: communities planning under the numbers.

Mentor role

Env-science teacher reviews scenario labeling. School-supervised.

Rubric calibration

R1: one local question, two products. R2: versions/dates cited. R3: observational baseline if used. R4: uncertainties separated. R5: memo clear. R6: refuses single-run destiny.

Two ways this goes wrong

(a) Cherry-picked worst case unlabeled. (b) “The model is wrong because it rained Tuesday.”

Credit lane fit

Lane A immediately. No verified credit claim.