Environment, Energy & Compute · Capstone brief
ENV-06 · PJM / demand crossover
Tie local load growth narratives to public demand data; test one forecast against a naive baseline.
The question
Tie local load growth narratives to public demand data; test one forecast against a naive baseline.
Sources / materials
Public ISO/RTO or utility demand materials the teacher approves (PJM or regional equivalent as available publicly). EIA context as needed (https://www.eia.gov/). Forecast vs naive baseline worksheet (e.g. recent trend extrapolation).
Expected failure modes
Media narrative as data. Ignoring weather-normalized load. Declaring a forecast “wrong” without a baseline. Mixing nameplate capacity with energy.
Done looks like
Narrative vs data table; baseline test; uncertainty notes; one-page “what a reporter got right/wrong.”
Five C's
CT: narrative vs meter. CR: public demand series. CO: peer rebuilds the baseline. CM: media-correction page. CZ: ratepayers under the narrative.
Mentor role
Env or economics teacher reviews baseline choice. School-supervised.
Rubric calibration
R1: one region, one narrative. R2: series cited. R3: naive baseline explicit. R4: weather/normalization limits. R5: page usable. R6: refuses vibes-as-data.
Two ways this goes wrong
(a) Headline only. (b) Forecast dunked with no baseline.
Credit lane fit
Lane A immediately. No verified credit claim.