INV-09 · Buy, fix, sell, and who pays

Model a buyout of Main Street Mechanical: purchase price, debt, operating changes, and exit. Then answer the question the spreadsheet does not: who carries the risk, and who pays if the plan goes wrong?

CASE-MAINST: README.md (the offer and context) and financials.csv. A spreadsheet.

Assuming the operating plan works. Ignoring debt service in a bad year. Treating the employees as a cost line only. Picking an exit multiple higher than the purchase multiple with no reason. A returns table with no downside case.

A simple buyout model: sources and uses, five years of cash flow after debt service, exit value under low, base, and high cases, and the buyer's equity return in each; a debt-coverage check for a bad year; and an employee-impact page: what changes for the technicians, customers, and the retiring owner in each case, and who bears the loss if the debt cannot be paid.

CT: separating the plan from its risks. CR: designing a downside case that could really happen. CO: a peer plays the lender and challenges the coverage check. CM: the employee-impact page. CZ: the forty employees whose jobs sit under the debt.

A banker, small-business owner, or private-equity professional reviews the downside case. Standing instruction: reject any model with no downside case. School-supervised.

R1: one deal, one decision. R2: every input from the case file or labeled an assumption. R3: comparator is the owner selling to the employees or closing. R4: downside and debt coverage named. R5: the impact page is fair to every side. R6: names who pays if it fails.

(a) A base case only, with an exit multiple chosen to make the returns work. (b) A careful model with no word about the people inside it.

Lane A (business, economics, or civics capstone). No verified credit claim.